We use newly developed agricultural production account data comparable across 15 OECD countries (1973-2016) to study the impact of adopting agricultural production techniques that incorporate genetically modified organisms on a nation’s aggregate agricultural productivity. We first develop and estimate a neoclassical production accounting framework for agriculture that distinguishes between GMO and non-GMO agricultural production processes. Exogenous variation of crop-specific pest shocks in geography, combined with the timing of technology innovation in a difference-in-difference strategy, is used to identify GMO adoption by countries. Then we follow with a series of robustness checks. The evidence suggests that the impact on aggregate total factor productivity is small to nonexistent and that the main impact of GMO adoption is to decrease the effectiveness of capital deepening in promoting labor productivity growth.

Yu Sheng, Crawford Chair Professor in Agricultural Economics, Crawford School of Public Policy, ANU. Yu Sheng is also the Vice President of the Asian Society of Agricultural Economists and the president of the East Asian Branch of Australasia Agricultural and Resource Economic Society (AARES). He is the co-editor of Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics (AJARE) and associate editor of Journal of Productivity Analysis. He received his PhD in Economics from the Australian National University in 2006, and his research interests include agricultural technology progress and productivity, rural transformation and development, and international trade and food policy, CGE modelling and China economy. His recent research has been published in American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Journal of International Money and Finance, Canadian Journal of Economics, Energy Economics, Review of Income and Wealth, World Development, Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics.